I'm thinking about rising interest rates, reindustrialisation, and demographics. The rising cost of money should indicate that investment in start-up jobs and hyper-financialization, on which the elite has thrived, will not last long. Recent layoffs in the media and technology appear to confirm this prediction. Off-shoring will evolve into "friend-shoring" as America and the West restructure supply networks away from China, and money will flow into expanding the American industrial sector. This will exacerbate resentment as technocratic elites become less relevant and progressively fall back into the middle class. The demand for blue-collar talents will rise, and these professions will become more rewarding. Meanwhile, Deneen's preferred cohort of more anchored, religious individuals will develop, as they breed more abundantly than other groups do. Meanwhile, the Baby Boomers—the largest generation in history and over-represented in the American elite—will die, freeing up space for their children and grandkids.If I'm correct, the elite will inevitably diminish, albeit the process may be difficult. Turchin and Deneen's darkest worries may not be realized; but, significant change will occur, whether we like it or not. But if we learn anything from these books, it is that left-liberal supporters merely want to maintain the current quo. They have become, in essence, conservative. The next revolutionaries are coming from the right.The Aristotle Foundation for Public Policy is a new policy think tank that focuses on Canadian civil society, democracy, and the country's core beliefs and values. Its first major publication is an essay collection called The 1867 Project: Why Canada Should Be Cherished, Not Cancelled. The Hub is thrilled to share weekly extracts from the book's essays in the following weeks.
Ideas have the power to affect the course
of individuals and entire nations. Ideas influence how people see and govern themselves and each other, from Adam Smith's concept of the "invisible hand" that helped spread free market ideas and prosperity to Karl Marx's opposing notions that fueled revolutions, repression, and entrenched poverty, to religious conceptions of any variety that have anchored cultures. Ideas have an impact that lasts beyond armies and civilizations.Immigrants, too, can have a significant impact on the culture and orientation of any nation-state, as they are "carriers" of ideas that can be realized by changing cultural assumptions and, in liberal democracies, voting habits. It is noteworthy, for example, that early Chinese immigrants to the west coast of North America in the mid-nineteenth century came from an enterprising region of China and brought a proclivity for creating businesses with them to California and British Columbia.Given the significance of ideas and immigration, it is worthwhile to investigate the movement of both. Whether one's ancestors arrived 20,000 years ago, were of primarily European "stock" and arrived within the last 500 years, or came from any other area of the world since the 1970s, the origins and changes in Canada's demographic make-up are important, as are the reactions of other Canadians to that mix. That is because a nation-state must unify various people behind a vision of the "good life" and reach an agreement on how to rule itself. Making such decisions demands a minimal level of consensus on what "good life" and "good government" imply, as well as how they are implemented in policy.
During the first several decades after Confederation
the vast majority of Canada's foreign-born population was from the British Isles, Europe, and Scandinavia. In 1871, these regions were home to more than 88 percent of Canada's foreign-born population. A full century later, the share had barely slightly fallen, to just about 80% in 1971.Beginning in the early 1970s, the composition of the immigrant population shifted dramatically. Since 1971, the number of non-European immigration source nations has increased, changing the ethnic composition of Canada's foreign-born population as well as the general demographic mix. By 2016, the traditional source of immigrant stock, primarily European and British, had reduced to little under 28%.As a proportion of all immigrants, those from Europe, Australia, Great Britain, South Africa, and the United States make up a smaller proportion of all foreign-born immigrants than at any other period in Canadian history, while the proportion from Asian countries is significantly larger. In 2016, Asian immigrants accounted for more than 48% of Canada's foreign-born population. By 2036, Asian immigrants are expected to make up 57% of Canada's foreign-born population. Before 1971, little over 12% of immigrants were visible minorities, but by 2021, 83% of recent immigrants were expected to be in that category.The religious composition of immigrants has also shifted. Prior to 1971, 78% of immigrants to Canada identified as Christians. Since then, that share has fallen. After 2001, more than 36% of immigrants aged 25 to 54 were non-Christians, slightly more than 38% identified as Christians, and nearly 26% claimed no religious affiliation.
Immigration and Integration
The proportion of immigrants working or looking for work is often regarded as the most reliable indicator of effective socialization. The closer that level is to the total level of a native-born population, the better immigrants assimilate into society.For example, in France, the foreign-born population's labor force participation rate was 67 percent in 2019, which is low when compared to other countries. In Canada, the labor force participation rate for the foreign-born group was slightly higher than in most G7 countries, at little over 79 percent, 12 points more than in France.Positive rates are also evident in greater employment rates and lower unemployment rates for foreign-born Canadians as compared to other G7 countries. For example, the unemployment rate for foreign-born people in Canada was 6.3 percent in 2019, compared to 5.5 percent for native-born Canadians. This is a minor variance that can be explained by language barriers, skill accreditation, adjusting to a new nation, and varying average education levels, among other considerations.The gap in unemployment rates between foreign-born and native-born Canadians is minor, especially when compared to Germany, where the jobless rate for people born outside the country is more than double that of native-born Germans.
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