Are Brazil and the U.S. Allies or Adversaries?

 

 Brazil’s Energy and Climate Change Agenda

Brazil's energy and environmental profiles have established it as a key worldwide player in two of the most pressing and interconnected global issues: energy security and climate change. Brazil is poised to become a significant exporter of diverse energy products, with as many as 50 billion barrels of oil beneath Brazilian waters, 167 million barrels of annual ethanol production (with plans to increase output to more than 400 million barrels by 2019), hydroelectric dams that supply up to 75% of Brazilian electricity, and the world's sixth-largest proven uranium reserves.
A potential oil bonanza has sparked major worldwide interest. In 2010, Petrobras, the Brazilian energy firm, raised $70 billion in the world's largest public share offering. Brazil's pre-salt discoveries (oil contained in rocks beneath a salt layer deep off the coast) are expected to have a significant impact on the country's economy and politics, as well as its environment.
Brazil's energy matrix is one of the least carbon intensive among major economies, and the country has made voluntary promises to reduce carbon output and deforestation (but deforestation rates remain high). The transition to a lower-carbon economy necessitates major investment (in incentives to prevent deforestation, for example), which might boost GDP and employment, yet Brazilians remain apprehensive that sustainability initiatives will stifle growth.14 Monitoring and enforcing climate and deforestation legislation remains challenging and imperfect. Brazil's international influence is mostly focused on energy and environmental issues.

Energy

Brazil's energy grid is among the least carbon intensive of the major economies because the bulk of its electricity is generated by hydropower and other renewable fuels; sugar-based ethanol also accounts for a significant portion of transportation fuels.15 Brazil is also expanding its subsurface hydrocarbon and uranium resources.
Brazil's energy position and low level of carbon intensity will be difficult to sustain. Continued industrialization and improving living standards have resulted in energy demand that exceeds Brazil's current infrastructure. The consequent burden on the country's energy infrastructure necessitates ongoing development throughout all parts of the energy value chain. Perhaps the most difficult hurdle for Brazil is to do so while preserving renewable energy's current percentage of the energy mix, which is 50%.
Concerns over labor and land use, as well as the possible impact on biodiversity in the Cerrado and Amazon, pose a challenge to sustained ethanol production expansion.16 At the same time, energy production is shifting away from hydropower and toward more natural gas-fired generation, as the majority of new large-capacity sites are located distant from demand centers or in environmentally sensitive locations such as the Amazon.
Conclusions and recommendations.
The Task Force concludes that energy is and will remain an important component of Brazil's economic and political agenda, owing to increased per capita energy consumption, the development of significant indigenous energy resources, and the need to expand current energy infrastructure. Brazil's involvement in this area is a prime illustration of how its local and international agendas complement one another. The United States and Brazil share common objectives in boosting energy efficiency, lowering carbon intensity, promoting biofuel development, expanding natural gas use, and controlling offshore oil exploration.
The Task Force applauds Obama and Rousseff's announcement of a bilateral Strategic Energy Dialogue to address a wide range of energy issues, including the safe and sustainable development of Brazil's deepwater oil and gas resources, as well as cooperation on biofuels and other renewables, energy efficiency, and civilian nuclear energy. The dialogue seeks to promote energy collaborations.
create jobs in both countries, improve energy security, and contribute to the fight against climate change.17 The Task Force advises both countries to make this program self-sustaining, bringing together government officials, regulators, and the private sector to engage in dialogue, cooperation, and collaboration where appropriate.

Pre-salt deposits.

The 1997 opening of the oil sector to competition, as well as Petrobras' partial privatization, marked the beginning of a period of tremendous expansion in oil production and exploration investment. During the same time period, several state-owned power distribution and generation enterprises were privatized, resulting in increased investment in distribution networks and additional power generation capacity. Following liberalization, Brazil's oil production more than doubled, hitting 2.6 million barrels per day in 2009, transforming the country from an oil importer to a net exporter. Petrobras remains the industry's dominating player, but more than forty domestic and international corporations are actively investing in the almost 500 upstream exploration and production blocks auctioned so far.
The 2006 discovery of the Tupi field in the pre-salt formation marked the beginning of one of the world's most significant new oil frontiers. According to Brazil's national oil regulator, Agência Nacional do Petróleo, pre-salt reserves might include 50 billion to 80 billion barrels of recoverable hydrocarbons, which is potentially six times Brazil's existing proven reserves of little under 13 billion barrels.18 If confirmed, these estimations would position Brazil among the world's ten greatest oil reserve holders, roughly between Russia and Venezuela. Brazil's pre-salt reserves have the potential to propel the country to the forefront of global oil exports.19 Pre-salt oil may start flowing in considerable quantities within the next five to seven years. According to optimistic forecasts, Brazil might produce up to four million barrels of oil per day by 2010, with one million barrels as net exports.20
Brazil is one of only a few Western Hemisphere countries—Canada is another—that will considerably boost oil production in the coming decade. Despite the challenges of conducting business in Brazil, the country's oil sector is one of the few attractive resource bases in the world that invites foreign investment. Indeed, in late

Conclusions and recommendations.

As Brazil develops its pre-salt oil reserves, diversifying global energy supplies, the Task Force believes that increased oil exports from Brazil are in the United States' strategic interest. As the United States looks to diversify its energy supply, higher imports from Brazil may help lessen its reliance on exports from less stable nations. Though
While the United States will not have a substantial impact on the trajectory of pre-salt development, the Ex-Im Bank, the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, and the United States Trade and Development Agency can provide finance to US enterprises to encourage participation.
The Task Force understands that Brazil's pre-salt oil will have a dramatic impact on the country as it reinvents itself as an energy powerhouse and builds a regulatory and distribution structure that aligns with Brazilian aspirations.